Which World Leader Will Leave Their Role Next?

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Political turmoil fed by populist governments, the coronavirus pandemic and an impending global financial struggle has moved a number of the world’s leaders to the top of the pile of contenders to be the next axed from office.

But who will leave first?

Whether it be Boris Johnson’s plummeting approval ratings, Joe Biden’s unsteady start to his presidency or Jair Bolsonaro’s fractious leadership in Brazil, speculation is rife about which world leader is next for the chop.

And politics betting sites have not let this issue go unnoticed. Punters can now bet on the latest politics odds on which world leader will get the boot next.

Covid-19 has been the most contentious issue for voters, the media and protesters over the past two years. Health systems have strained, millions have died, and much political capital has been gained and lost during the pandemic.

With that in mind, gambling.com looks at the top contenders in world politics to lose their job next, and who could see their days in the spotlight soon come to an end.

Yoshihide Suga – Prime Minister of Japan (1/1)

Yoshihide Suga

It appears a near-inevitability that Yoshihide Suga will soon be ousted as Japan’s prime minister. The 72-year-old has overseen a disastrous response to the coronavirus crisis that has so far cost the lives of 15,700 people.

To make matters worse, a surge of cases in Tokyo on the eve of the Olympics forced Suga to choose between people’s lives and the financial cost of not staging the Games. Tokyo 2020 went ahead with barely any spectators and his party’s approval rating has fallen to 29.1% – the worst rating for a Japanese leader in nine years.

The next Japanese election is on 28 November 2021 and opposition leader Yukio Edano could sweep to power – albeit potentially in a coalition government.

Jair Bolsonaro – President of Brazil (11/4)

Jair Bolsonaro

Bookmakers give controversial Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro a 26% chance of being the next world leader ousted from their post. What perhaps saves Bolsonaro in this market is that Brazil’s general election is scheduled for October 2022 – 11 months after the Japanese vote.

Still, Bolsonaro could be ousted before then. His anti-lockdown, anti-mask, Covid-sceptical standpoint has split Brazil, with many furious with the populist leader who has overseen 576,000 deaths from coronavirus – the sixth-worst death rate per capita in the world. Should Suga go, Bolsonaro will be the new favourite to be axed next.

Joe Biden – President of America (13/2)

Joe Biden

US presidents usually see out their full term but there are concerns Joe Biden will not be in office come the 2024 election. The 78-year-old has endured a tough start to his presidency, which has been impacted by economic issues and a disastrous withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.

As the US comes to terms with its less-than-mighty stature on the world stage, Biden must also combat the growing resurgence of Donald Trump. He is unlikely to be impeached but his age means bettors are looking at whether Biden will complete a full term. He has a 13% chance of being the next world leader removed from power.

Justin Trudeau – Prime Minister of Canada (7/1)

Justin Trudeau

The 2021 Canadian election is a snap vote called by PM Justin Trudeau this summer as the minority leader seeks to reclaim his majority. Trudeau has pitched the snap poll as an opportunity for voters to back a candidate to deliver a post-Covid recovery. However, the Liberals’ lead has already fallen and it now looks to be a neck-and-neck battle with the Conservatives for power. The Canadian election is on September 20th and, perhaps surprisingly, Trudeau is the firm favourite to win. That may change, however, in the coming days.

Emmanuel Macron – President of France (15/2)

Emmanuel Macron

French politics is again going through a cycle of uncertainty amid the resurgence of nationalist Marine Le Pen. The next French election is scheduled for 2022 and currently Emmanuel Macron and Le Pen are polling at 25% each.

More people are swayed towards the current president in the second round of votes (France has a two-stage voting system) but it’s clear the sitting premier could be ousted. He may not beat Suga or Bolsonaro to the chop but Macron is walking a fine line here.

Boris Johnson – Prime Minister of GB & NI (10/1)

Boris Johnson

People often ask how long will Boris Johnson last as UK prime minister and the answer is almost certainly longer than you think. Johnson surged to an 80-seat majority at the 2019 UK election and has ridden out the worst of coronavirus, sleaze allegations, a furore over school meals, an exams fiasco, complications over the Brexit deal and now the botched withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and he’s still in power.

Controversy surrounds the PM but nothing sticks. In fact, he is still favourite to win the next UK general election, scheduled for 2024. Unless he quits, he isn’t going anywhere soon.

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First published on: Gambling.com